The 11 Presidential candidates

The eleven candidates of Egypt’s presidential elections

 

Egypt’s first democratic Presidential elections have begun today. 53 million eligible voters are asked to choose between eleven candidates. Only five candidates, however, seem to have a credible possibility of making it to the second turn, which will take place on 16 and 17 June if by tomorrow nobody will have reached an absolute majority of votes.

Polls have been throwing around some contradictory guess-work, but reliable predictions are very hard to make. The Islamist vote will be divided between the Muslim Brotherhood’s candidate Mohamed Morsy and former Brotherhood member Abouel Fotouh. Mohamed Morsy can count on the support of the Brotherhood’s mainstream, the Salafi Jurisprudence Commission for Rights and Reform and Salafi political parties Asala, Fadhila and Islah. Abouel Fotouh can count on the more progressive and revolutionary currents within the Brotherhood and has the support of the moderate Wasat Party, but has also been endorsed by the Salafi Dawah group and its political party Al Nour.

The revolutionary vote is divided mainly between those who are considering voting for Abouel Fotouh and those who support the Nasserist candidate, Hamdeen Sabbahi. Abouel Fotouh has consistently been one of the most outspoken critics of the military council, and has been endorsed by some groups within the Revolutionary Youth Coalition, but others have voiced their opposition. Hamdeen Sabbahi represents the choice of those who fear Abouel Fotouh might indeed still be very close to the Brotherhood, which already controls 40% of Parliament.

The liberal vote is struggling just as much to make up its mind, torn as it is between Amr Moussa and Abouel Fotouh. The Wafd party has thrown its weight behind Amr Moussa, the popular former Foreign Minister who has been leading most polls in the last months. Many, however, see him as a feloul, a “remnant” of Mubarak’s regime. The higher echelons of the Egyptian Social Democratic Party, the Free Egyptians Party and the Adl Party all seemed inclined to back Amr Moussa, but threats of mass resignation from their rank and file convinced them to take a more cautious approach, deciding not to back a particular candidate for the first round of voting.

But the military and counter-revolutionary forces seem to be equally divided on their choice, with former Amr Moussa and Ahmed Shafiq competing for their preference. Until recently, the candidate closest to the military council was thought to be Amr Moussa, a popular statesman distant enough from Mubarak’s regime to be able to claim exemption from its corruption. In the last month, however, Shafiq has stepped into the crowded spotlight and asserted himself as a viable candidate, becoming the frontrunner in two different polls commissioned by government-affiliated pollsters.

The outcome of this first round of voting is bound to blow away all this indecision. When it will be down to two alternatives Egyptians might be disgruntled by the remaining options, but they will most likely have no doubt on what to do with their ballot.

[read more about the individual candidates here]

Presidential elections approaching

The attempts of collaboration between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF) appear to have sinked. 

The Brotherhood had managed to get the military ruling council to agree to its request of having parliamentary elections as the first step of the democratic transition, fully aware that their widespread presence on the territory would have granted them a dominating position inside both Houses of Parliament. The Brotherhood had then accepted the SCAF’s request to have the new Constitution approved before the Presidential elections, while the army was still in control of the country. The Brotherhood also halted all support to the ongoing street protests, often siding with the SCAF in criticising the demonstrations, and speculations started to spread regarding a consensus presidential candidate that the SCAF and the Brotherhood could agree on. But somewhere down the line this convergence of interests stopped working, and all of a sudden the military junta and the Islamist organisation started exchanging increasingly heated accusations.

The climatic point of rupture was represented by the Brotherhood’s sudden decision to recuse its long held pledge not to field a Presidential candidate, and present the nomination of Khairat El Shater, the Brotherhood’s second-in-command and one of it’s most popular figures. Shortly afterwards, in a further dramatic turn of events, the Presidential Elections Commission excluded ten contendants from the race, with El Shater and other high profile candidates among them. A military tribunal had jailed El Shater in 2007 on a number of charges including money laundering and providing university students with arms. It was common opinion that the Brotherhood leader had been jailed by the Mubarak regime for purely political reasons, and in fact El Shater received an amnesty right after the fall of the dictatorship. But the Egyptian law bans pardoned convicts from exercising their political rights for six years, and when a lawsuit was filed challenging El Shater’s eligibility, the Presidential Elections Commission ruled for his exclusion from the presidential race.

The main Salafi candidate, Hazem Abu Ismail, was also barred from running, on the grounds that his mother owned a double citizenship and a United States passport, which goes against the new electoral law introduced after Mubarak’s ousting. Omar Suleiman, head of Egypt’s Secret Service for eighteen years before being appointed vice President by Mubarak in his last days in power, was excluded for failing to collect the required amount of signatures in all of Egypt’s districts. Mortada Mansour, a lawyer with strong connections to Mubarak’s regime, appears to have gone into hiding, after failing to show up at the trial that sees him accused of being involved in conspiring to kill protesters during last year’s uprising, and so far has escaped arrest.

The presidential elections are set to take place on 23 and 24 May, the runoff voting round will be on 16 and 17 June, and the new President will be named on 21 June. Here is a list of the main presidential candidates left in the race. Some, however, believe that the first two names in the list (Amr Moussa and Abou El Fotouh) are the only candidates with a real chance of winning.

SCAF’s candidate?

Amr Moussa

Foreign minister under Mubarak from 1991 to 2001, Amr Moussa became well known for his strong anti-Israeli rhetoric. He was then appointed Secretary General of the Arab League, and some believe this removal from national politics was Mubarak’s response to Moussa’s increasing popularity. After the exclusion of Omar Suleiman, Amr Moussa seems to be hoping to become the conservative candidate SCAF will endorse. He’s adamant in avoiding criticism toward the military junta, claims that “it’s not in the best interest of the next President” to be discussing SCAF members’ future immunity against prosecution, and refuses to elaborate his views on what the balance of powers between the next President and the Egyptian military should be. Moussa is trying to present himself as a necessary balance to the rapidly growing power of the Islamists – which already control the Parliament. His name seems to be coming first on the list in every presidential poll.

The revolutionary moderate Islamist

Abdul Moneim Abou El Fotouh:

Abou El Fotouh was a high profile member of the Muslim Brotherhood’s reformist wing. Last year he defied the Brotherhood’s claim not to field any presidential candidates and declared his intentions to run for the presidential elections, causing the Brotherhood’s conservative leadership to expel him. Abou El Fotouh is a vocal supporter of gender and religious equality, and is trying to present himself as the most viable revolutionary candidate, the meeting point between moderate reformist islamists and secular revolutionaries. He believes military commanders should not enjoy immunity from prosecution for crimes committed against protesters during the transitional period. Moreover, as the SCAF tries to find a way to maintain its economic interests safe and its budget separate and secret, Abou El Fotouh has declared he would include the military budget in the overall state budget, and that he is “against the military having any role outside its duty of securing the safety of the country.” Notwithstanding the Muslim Brotherhood’s threat to expel anybody who supports his campaign, some analysts seem to believe that a considerable portion of the organisation’s rank and file could still vote for him.

One of the left’s candidates

Hamdeen Sabbahi. 

Sabbahi is a Nasserist, an ideology that refers to former President Nasser’s political thought based on a strong nationalist and pan-Arab rhetoric. During the Parliamentary elections, Sabbahi’s centre-left political party chose to run in the alliance led by the Muslim Brotherhood. Sabbahi was jailed twice during Mubarak’s regime, and after the uprising he has been a vocal critic of “the SCAF’s mismanagement of the transitional period,” repeatedly calling for investigations into the violence against protesters and for a revision of the Ministry of Interior. He also believes the SCAF should not enjoy immunity from prosecution, once it resigns from power. He’s critical of the Camp David peace accords between Egypt and Israel, and has vowed Egyptian aid to Palestinians in case of his election. However, there seem to be attempts to merge his campaign with that of Abou el Fotouh.

The isolated die-hard

Ahmed Shafiq

A man of military background, Shafiq has extensive connections to Mubarak’s dictatorship. He was nominated air force commander in 1996, and then became Mubarak’s Civil Aviation Minister from 2002 to 2011. On 29 January 2011, five days into Egypt’s mass protests and 13 days before the fall of the regime, he was appointed Prime Minister by Mubarak and remained in power even after the dictator’s resignation, but the continued protests forced him to resign in March 2011. He now stepped back on the political scene, although facing 35 charges of corruption related to his years as Civil Aviation Minister.  Some believed he was a possible candidate representing the SCAF’s interests, but this week the military showed otherwise by signing its approval to a new Parliament law taylor made to make Shafiq’s candidacy illegal. The Presidential Elections Commission, however, accepted Shafiq’s appeal, allowing him to continue the presidential race.

Another of the left’s candidates

Abou El Ezz El Hariri,

El Hariry is running on behalf of the Socialist Popular Alliance. He was elected MP, but his staunch opposition to the SCAF leads him to claim the Parliament’s illegitimacy, since the elections took place under the military’s rule. He believes a clear deal had been struck between the Brotherhood, the Salafis and the SCAF, although now the army and the Islamists are in a “tug of war.” He’s the one who filed the lawsuit which expelled Shater – the Brotherhood’s original candidate – from the Presidential race. El Hariri may also step back in order to channel all the “revolutionary” votes to either Sabbahi or Abou El Fotouh.

The Brotherhood’s controversial candidate

Mohamed Morsy

Mohamed Morsy is the President of the Muslim Brotherhood’s political party, and after Shater’s exclusion he has become the Brotherhood’s candidate in the Presidential race. However, cracks have started to appear within the Islamist organisation. It’s complete reversal of position regarding the fielding of a presidential candidate has raised a lot of criticism among both Brotherhood members and leadership. According to one source, up to 80% of Brotherhood MPs were against the nomination of a Brotherhood candidate, with at least one prominent MP publicly announcing his opposition to it. Several youth members have also voiced their unease with a Brotherhood-nominated candidate.

The remaining Islamist candidate

Mohamed Selim Al Awa

After the exclusion of the famous and popular Salafi candidate Hazem Abu Ismail, Selim Al Awa is now vying with Abou El Fotouh and Morsy for the Islamist vote. The Salafist Nour Party, which surprised all by winning 25% of seats in the new Parliament, has named Selim Al Awa as one of the possible candidates it will choose to endorse. According to one source, however, Abu Ismail’s supporters are more likely to back Abouel Fotouh. Selim Al Awa has repeatedly declared his aversion to street protests, since “they endanger stability and prevent people from going about their daily lives,” and was quoted as saying he “trusts the SCAF and what it has done in the past period.”

The Sadat-era candidate

Mansour Hassan

Mansour Hassan was one of the most influential political figures during President Sadat’s regime, but withdrew from politics after the President’s assassination in 1981. He was appointed by SCAF in December 2011 as the head of its new Advisory Council, and he is seen as another candidate that could enjoy the support of the army’s higher echelons.